why people believe weird things

When reality becomes unbearably oppressive, we are easily deceived and seek reassurance from fortune tellers, palm readers, astrologers, and spiritualists. When promises and hopeful words are thrown at us, claiming to ease life's great anxieties, our ability to critically evaluate becomes weakened. Wouldn't it be remarkable if, even in death, we don't truly die? If we could speak again with the loved ones we've lost, wouldn’t that be extraordinary? Of course, it would. In fact, skeptics, too, are not so different from the believers, as they are equally seized by such desires. This belongs to humanity's age-old yearning. Our ancestors, living in a world where they could not guarantee their next meal, developed beliefs about the afterlife and the spiritual world. Therefore, when we feel weak or fall into fear, we can gain hope merely by receiving promises of the afterlife, even if the evidence is exceedingly flimsy. The rest is a matter of human nature, which is easily misled.

Humans have evolved the ability to seek out and identify connections between objects and events, such as avoiding a rattlesnake that makes a distinctive sound. Those who discovered the most significant connections left the most descendants, and we are their heirs. The problem, however, is that causal thinking is prone to errors. We form connections regardless of whether the objects or events actually exist. The result of these mistakes is twofold: A false negative can be life-threatening, while a false positive merely wastes time and energy. For example, performing a rain dance will not end a drought. What we have inherited is precisely this tendency to make false positives.

Belief influences perception.
Even scientists make false positives. However, the methods of science are specifically designed to filter these out. A recent major example of a false positive is cold fusion. If the announcement of cold fusion research results had been delayed until other scientists could provide corroborating evidence, the findings might not have attracted any attention. This is the way science progresses: by identifying countless false negatives and false positives and moving forward.

What does it mean to be a skeptic? Some people believe that skepticism means rejecting new ideas, or worse, confuse skepticism with cynicism, thinking that skeptics are merely unpleasant grumps who reject anything that challenges the current state of affairs. This is a mistaken view. Skepticism is a provisional approach to any claim. In other words, skepticism is a method, not a stance. One can be skeptical of any belief, and one can also be skeptical of those who challenge beliefs. In this book, we will analyze three stages of why people believe strange things. First, they cannot stop hoping. Second, they may be mistaken in their general reasoning. Third, they may be mistaken in their specific reasoning.

Originally, we were confident enough to formalize our thoughts, yet humble enough to acknowledge our potential for error. When dealing with strange beliefs, the essential tension lies between being overly skeptical and dismissing even innovative ideas, and being overly open-minded and accepting charlatans. However, we can find a balance between the two by answering a few basic questions: What is the quality of the evidence supporting the claim? What is the background and qualifications of the person making the claim? Does the claim hold up? From my own experience in the world of alternative health practices and supplements, I’ve learned that, in most cases, the evidence is flimsy, the backgrounds of the claimants are dubious, and the remedies or devices rarely have the effects they claim.

Children are born with the ability to perceive cause-and-effect relationships. Our brains are natural machines for piecing together related events and solving problems that require our attention. We can imagine ancient humans in Africa using sharp tools made from split and ground rocks to cut meat from the carcasses of large animals. Or we can imagine the person who first discovered that striking flint could create a spark to start a fire. Similarly, inventions such as the wheel, lever, bow and arrow, and plow were not made to fit us to the environment, but rather to shape the environment to our needs.

Eternal Hope
All the reasons for believing in strange things are encapsulated in the title of the final chapter of this book. This reflects my conviction that humans are, by nature, a species that always looks ahead for a better level of happiness and satisfaction. Unfortunately, this often results in clinging to unrealistic promises of a better life or holding fast to intolerance and ignorance, believing that we can improve our lives only by dismissing the lives of others. And sometimes, this obsession with a better future makes us overlook what we already have in the present. There are other sources of hope, however. Even if the sources are different, hope remains hope. It is the hope that human intellectual ability, alongside compassion, will help us solve countless problems and improve the quality of our lives. It is the hope that the progress of history will continue, advancing toward greater freedom and encompassing all people. It is the hope that, alongside love, empathy, reason, and science, we will come to understand the universe, the world, and ourselves.

 

 

This passage discusses the nature of human belief, particularly why people tend to believe in things that are not supported by evidence, such as fortune-telling, astrology, and spiritualism. It explores how, when life becomes overwhelming or uncertain, people are often drawn to comforting ideas or promises, even if these ideas are unsupported by facts. The text explains that the desire for hope and reassurance is deeply rooted in human nature.

### The Search for Reassurance
When life feels difficult or oppressive, we are often vulnerable to believing in things that promise relief from our anxieties. Many people turn to fortune-tellers, astrologers, and spiritualists who offer hope through vague promises, such as the idea that life continues after death or that we can communicate with lost loved ones. These ideas are comforting, and the belief in them can feel extraordinary, even if the evidence is weak or nonexistent. The author suggests that this longing for hope is not just limited to believers—skeptics too may be driven by similar desires. Humans have always longed for reassurance, especially in times of fear or weakness, which is why these beliefs persist across generations.

### The Human Tendency to Find Patterns
Humans have evolved to look for connections between events, because this ability helped our ancestors survive. For example, recognizing the sound of a rattlesnake and avoiding it could save one's life. However, this tendency to find patterns is not always accurate. Sometimes, we form connections where none exist, which can lead to mistakes. A "false positive," where we believe something will happen based on a mistaken connection, can be harmless (like doing a rain dance when it’s not going to rain), but a "false negative," where we fail to recognize a real danger, can be life-threatening.

### The Influence of Belief on Perception
Even scientists, who are trained to be skeptical and critical, can make mistakes and fall for false positives. However, the scientific method is designed to identify and filter out these errors. For instance, in the case of "cold fusion"—a scientific claim that was later proven false—delayed results and more scrutiny might have kept the idea from gaining attention. Science progresses by identifying these mistakes and refining our understanding of the world.

### The Nature of Skepticism
Skepticism is often misunderstood. Some people think that being skeptical means rejecting new ideas outright or being negative about everything. But skepticism is actually a method—a way of questioning and testing claims before accepting them. It doesn’t mean rejecting everything, but rather asking whether the evidence supports the claim. This approach is important when dealing with strange or extraordinary beliefs. Skepticism involves evaluating whether the evidence is strong, whether the person making the claim is qualified, and whether the claim holds up under scrutiny.

### Children and Cause-and-Effect Thinking
Humans are born with an innate ability to recognize cause-and-effect relationships. This ability helped our ancestors solve practical problems, such as making tools or discovering fire. Early humans used their understanding of cause and effect to shape their environment—by creating tools, weapons, and inventions that allowed them to survive and thrive. This same natural ability to recognize patterns is what drives many of our beliefs, even if those beliefs aren’t always accurate.

### Eternal Hope
The final section of the passage emphasizes the role of hope in human life. Humans are driven by a desire for a better, happier future, and this often leads them to cling to unrealistic promises or to act with intolerance toward others. However, hope can also be a source of strength, as it encourages people to strive for progress. The author believes that, through human intellect, compassion, and the progress of history, we can solve many of the world’s problems and improve our lives. This kind of hope, rooted in love, reason, and science, can lead to a better understanding of the world and ourselves.

### Conclusion
Overall, the passage reflects on why people are drawn to false beliefs, the psychological and evolutionary factors that contribute to this tendency, and the importance of skepticism and critical thinking. It also highlights the role of hope in shaping human behavior and how it can sometimes lead to both positive and negative outcomes. The message is that while hope is important, it should be based on evidence and reason, not on unverified or fantastical promises.

 

 

현실이 견딜 수 없게 압박해오면, 우리는 쉽게 미혹되어 점술가와 손금쟁이, 점성술사와 심령술사에게 확신을 보장받으려 한다. 삶의 크나큰 불안들을 완화한답시고 던져진 약속과 희망의 말들이 맹습을 해오면 우리가 가진 비판 능력은 무너지고 만다. 우리가 죽어도 진짜 죽는게 아니라면, 굉장하지 않겠는가.
우리가 떠나보낸 사랑하는 사람들과 다시 얘기를 나눌 수 있다면, 근사하지 않겠는가? 물론 그렇다. 회의주의자들 역시 그런 욕망에 사로잡힌다는 점에서, 믿는 자들과 전혀 다를 바가 없다. 이는 인간의 오래된 욕구에 해당한다. 다음 끼니를 장담 못할 만큼 삶이란게 불확실했던 세상을 살았던 우리 조상들은 사후 세계와 영적 세계에 대한 믿음을 개발했다. 그래서 우리가 마음이 약해지거나 두려움에 빠지면, 사후 세계에 대한 약속을 받는 것만으로 증거가 지극히 보잘것없는데도 희망을 얻을 수 있다. 나머지는 모두 미혹되기 쉬운 인간성의 몫이다.

인간은 주변의 사물과 사건 사이의 연관성을 추구하고 찾아내는 능력을 진화시켰으며, 이를테면 방울소리를 내는 뱀은 피해야 한다는것등, 최상의 연관성을 찾아낸 사람들이 가장 많은 자손을 남겼다. 그 후손이 바로 우리들이다. 문제는 인과적 사고에 오류 가능성이 있다는것이다. 우리는 대상의 존재 여부와는 상관없이 연관을 짓는다. 이런 착오의 결과는 두 가지이다. 잘못된 부정은 목숨을 해칠 수 있따. 방울소리를 내는 뱀은 해가 없다. 반면 잘못된 긍정은 시간과 기력만을 허비하게 할 뿐이다. 기우제를 지내면 가뭄이 물러갈것이다. 우리가 물려받은 유산은 바로 잘못된 긍정이다.
믿음은 지각에 영향을 준다. 
과학자들 역시 잘못된 긍정을 한다. 그러나 과학의 방법들은 이것들을 솎을 수 있도록 특별히 고안되었다. 잘못된 긍정을 보여주는 최근의 큰 사례가 저온 핵융합일것이다. 만일 저온 핵융합 연구 결과의 공표가 다른 과학자들로부터 보강 증거가 나올때까지 미뤄졌더라면, 아마 그 연구 결과는 주목할 가치가 없었을것이다. 이것이 바로 과학이 진보해가는 방식이다. 잘못된 부정과 잘못된 긍정을 무수히 식별해가면서 앞으로 나아가는것이다.
회의주의자가 된다는것이 무슨 의미가 있는가? 어떤 사람들은 회의란 새로운 아이디어를 거부하는거라고 믿거나 더 나쁘게는 회의와 냉소를 혼동해서 회의주의자들이란 현재의 안정 상태를 걸고 넘어지는 주장은 아무도 흔쾌히 받아들이지 못하는 심술맞은 깍쟁이들이라고 생각하기도 한다. 이는 잘못된 생각이다. 회의란 어떤 주장에 대한 임시적인 접근법이다. 곧, 회의란 입장이 아니라 방법이다. 
어떤 믿음에 대해서도 회의적이 될 수 있고, 그 믿음에 문제를 제기하는 사람에 대해서도 회의적이 될 수 있다. 사람들이 이상한것을 믿는 까닭을 이 책에서는 세 단계로 분석할것이다. 첫째, 희망하기를 그칠 수 없기 때문이다. 둘째, 일반적인 방식에서 생각이 잘못 될 수 있기 때문이다. 셋째, 특수한 방식에서 생각이 잘못 될 수 있기 때문이다. 
원래 생각들을 정식화할 만큼 충분히 자신감을 가지면서 동시에 자신의 오류 가능성을 인정할만큼 충분히 겸손했다. 
이상한것들을 다룰때의 본질적으로 긴장은 지나치게 회의적이어서 혁신적인 생각들까지 지나쳐버리는것과 지나치게 열린 마음이어서 엉터리 사기꾼들까지 받아들이는것 사이에 자리한다. 그러나 다음의 몇가지 기본적인 물음에 답하는것으로 둘 사이의 균형을 찾을 수 있다. 주장을 뒷받침하는 증거의 질은 어떠한가? 주장하는 사람의 배경과 자격은 어떠한가? 주장대로 나타나는가? 개인적으로 대체 건강요법과 건강 보조 기구의 세계를 편력하면서 알게 된것처럼, 대개의 경우 증거는 빈약하고 주장자들의 배경과 자격도 의심스럽고, 요법이든 보조 기구든 거의 모두 말한대로의 효과가 전혀 없다.
아이들은 원인-결과 관계를 지각할 수 있는 능력을 갖고 태어났다. 우리의 뇌는 서로 관련 있는 사건들의 조각을 맞추고, 주목할 필요가 있는 문제들을 풀어내느 자연의 기계이다. 우리는 아프리카의 고대인이 암석을 쪼개고 갈아서 만든 날카로운 도구로 덩치 큰 짐승의 주검에서 고기를 잘라내는 모습을 그려볼 수 있다. 또는 부싯돌을 치면 불뽕이 일어나 불을 피울 수 있다는 사실을 처음으로 발견한 사람을 상상해낼수도 있을것이다. 바퀴, 지레, 활과 화살, 쟁기등 우리를 환경에 맞추기보다는 환경을 우리에 맞추게 했던 발명품도 마찬가지이다.
영원히 마르지 않는 희망
이상한것들을 믿는 이 모든 이유를 한데 묶어 이 책의 마지막 장 제목으로 삼았다. 이는 인간이 본성적으로 언제나 더 나은 수준의 행복과 만족을 찾아 앞날을 내다보는 종이라는 나의 확신을 담고 있다. 불행하게도 그 결과는, 보다 나은 삶에 대한 비현실적인 약속을 붙들려하거나, 오로지 불관용과 무지를 고집함으로써 오로지 타인의 삶을 가벼이 생각함으로써 더 나은 삶을 획득할 수 있다고 믿는 경우가 너무 흔하다는것이다. 그리고 이따금, 다가올 미래의 삶에만 집착한 나머지, 지금의 삶에서 우리가 가진것을 놓쳐버린다는것이다. 희망의 다른 원천도 있다. 원천이 다르더라도 희망은 희망이다. 인간의 지적인 능력이 측은지심과 더불어서 무수히 산적한 문제들을 해결하고 각자의 삶의 질을 높일 수 있으리라는 희망, 역사의 진보가 계속 이어져 보다 큰 자유를 향해 나아갈것이며, 모든 사람들을 보듬어 갈것이라는 희망, 사랑과 공감과 아울러 이성과 과학도 우리가 우주를 이해하고 세계를 이해하고 우리 자신을 이해하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을거라는 희망이 바로 그것이다.